怎么说 "Avast, ye matey?"

The US navy and several Chinese naval vessels had a "significant encounter" yesterday, 25 miles south of Hainan island. The event brought to mind a recent article by Robert Kaplan that discussed what a future confrontation between China and the US would entail, along with a subsequent article from the same author that described the increasing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean and his views on the changing role of the US navy.

The brief clash in the South China Sea between the two nations is probably not a good sign in the eys of Kaplan who states that "a U.S.-Chinese understanding at sea is crucial for the stabilization of world politics in the twenty-first century." However, I do not believe this encounter is a portent for US-Sino naval relations. As Kapaln suggests, China is a competitor of the United States and not an opponent. The relationship could probably be better served by closer communication between the two militaries, and indeed such a trend has been taking place.

I am certainly no expert on the subject and there are people that would disagree with me. When I was living in China last year I just such a conversation. A friend and I were on an overnight train and were sharing a compartment with a group of naval soldiers that were on leave. After they learned we could speak Mandarin, we quickly found ourselves in a political discussion. A common question that I faced while living in China was "do you think the US and China will go to war?" Inevitably, this came up. I expressed my opinion and when I turned it back to one of the navy guys, he told me that he "was certain that they would go to war." He didn't elaborate much further, but said that the US and China get worked up over seemingly insignificant problems all the time, which to him meant that a larger problem surely was on the horizon.

I questioned the validity of that statement then and continue to do so now. The accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1998, or the spy plane collision in 2001 are but two examples of "big problems" that the countries were able to work through without further loss of life. And I think that relations between the two countries are much better now than they were 10 years ago, and the prospect of conflict is that much less likely as a result.

A bit of a wandering post here, but I'm trying to get into the habit of writing more often.